Santa has left the building.

As the 2021 runway shortens and we are pulled into the whirlpool that is Christmas and the silly season, there are signs that the market has calmed down…a little.

In the last few weeks regulators have made deliberate attempts to cool the market, APRA first and then the talk of possible rate rises by the RBA have definitely made some of the twitchier buyers twitch.

What fascinates me is how reactive some people are to short term measures when making long term decisions.

Auction clearance rates have eased from 90% to 75% but that still points to a very solid market. I don’t think it’s just APRA and the RBA that have caused this slight change, I think people are tired and are ready to relax enjoy some much awaited time off.

While regional hubs are buzzing Sydney is a little jaded. We all came into this year saying ‘well it can’t be worse than last year’ and then whammo we went into another lockdown. Home-schooling, working remotely and a few extra COVID kilos means most are ready to chill.

That begs the question, what next for the property market? If I had to make a prediction (which I obviously do) I’d say the market will start to slow down in December and Sydneysiders will head for the hills (and the beach).

Everyone will get a break and the 2022 market will roar back to life. February promises to be a big month because worse than lockdown...we will then be facing a Federal election.

If you want to buy I say get to it, elections mean lower stock and that means a tough market for property buyers (I also think if Scotty from marketing keeps his job this economy will find another gear).

The combination of a new year, the return of overseas travel (and immigration) will mean this city is likely to wake up in 2022 with a spring in its step.

If you believe in the seven year cycle the last peak was in 2017, (before that it was 2010) going by that logic the next one is in 2024!

36 sleeps to Christmas…

Until next week,

David Murphy