The Trump Card.

Now that we have sailed past the halfway mark of 2024 I felt it was time to reflect on the year that has been and what I think may lie ahead.

The property market has performed remarkably well up until now with the two major contributing factors being stabilising interest rates and low stock levels, it seems that things may now change.

As a salesperson who gets paid to be eternally positive about the property market it always feels a touch risky to write honestly on what we can see in terms of prevailing market weaknesses but here goes (I’m less comfortable with the alternative).

There is no doubt that since the recent economic data was released regarding inflation and possible further rate rises I have noticed that the market has become slightly jittery. This is evidenced by several sale campaigns in recent weeks across the lower north shore that have failed to sell, some of which were good homes that would have easily sold a few months back.

The other factor that can’t be ignored is less local, namely the circus that is the looming US election…needless to say that has gathered steam in the shocking happenings of last weekend in Pennsylvania. Regardless of who wins (yes I know we know), it feels to me that the US is like the Titanic steaming towards grave danger…the lead up to this election will surely unsettle global financial markets and that will likely alter sentiment across the board.

*Side note/question…how is it that out of 335 million people they have to choose between these two?

My team has also noted a significant increase in requests for appraisals recently and according to Core Logic this rise in potential seller activity is across the board. Thankfully we already have a strong pipeline of new business set to hit the market but I’m assuming that other agencies are in a similar boat and are seeing this trend.

The question is, will the real threat of another interest rate rise combined with higher stock levels and global instability rock the boat?

Interesting times ahead, apologies for all of the nautical references…perhaps it's a side effect of being in the desert for a few days.

Until next week,

David Murphy