Stop The Press.
At the age of 19 I applied for my first job in real estate. In my mind the first interview went well however my prospective employer suggested I just might be too young. As I was leaving his office he (John) recommended I read the Pulitzer Prize winning book ‘Truman’ and maybe after that we could have another chat. To his surprise, two weeks later I called and said I was ready for that chat. This book was a brick with wafer thin pages and tiny font so I think he was impressed enough to give me a start (locked in a room cold calling).
Contained within that book is one of my favourite photographs. President elect Harry Truman holding up a newly printed copy of the Chicago Tribune with the headline ‘Dewey defeats Truman.’
Against the ‘expert’ predictions Harry Truman had won. The Tribune made the fatal mistake of prematurely going to print but it was too late to ‘stop the press.’
As the world becomes ever more anxious about inflation and everything else the property experts are back. I note these same experts previously predicted 20-30% price falls after COVID and interest rates would remain at record lows well into 2024 *property prices rose sharply after COVID and interest rates have risen significantly in 2022.
This week I’ve appraised a lot of properties in the area and what has struck me is how jittery some people are about the market.
Let’s face it, no one knows what will happen next year (apart from maybe the Illuminati and the Rothschilds?).
The best advice I can give to buyers and sellers in the current market is to apply the 12 month rule. Given the volatility, if you really want to sell in the next 12 months now (or February) is probably as good a time as any. Conversely, if you really want to buy and intend to keep the property for more than 12 months apply the above.
For anyone sitting at home stressing about what may or may not happen, this week's missive is for you. Calmly make the best decision you can with the information in front of you, in five years it probably won’t matter (and based on 100 years of historical data property prices will probably be higher).
Making emotionally fuelled decisions rarely works out, if you need historical proof of this google the launch of Windows 95 where Bill Gates and his colleagues decide to dance on stage to The Rolling Stones classic ‘Start Me Up,’ it’s truly terrifying.
Speaking of terrifying, Happy Halloween everyone, if you are in town on Monday feel free to drop by our office for some free refined sugar.
Until next week,
David